Uncertainties in volcanic plume modeling: A parametric study using FPLUME

We carry out a parametric study in order to identify and quantify the effects of uncertainties on pivotal parameters controlling the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The study builds upon numerical simulations using FPLUME, an integral steady-state model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory generalized in order to account for volcanic processes (particle fallout and re-entrainment, water phase changes, effects of wind, etc). As reference cases for strong and weak plumes, we consider the cases defined during the IAVCEI Commission on tephra hazard modeling inter-comparison study (Costa et al., 2016). The parametric study quantifies the effect of typical uncertainties on total mass eruption rate, column height, mixture exit velocity, temperature and water content, and particle size. Moreover, a sensitivity study investigates the role of wind entrainment and intensity, atmospheric humidity, water phase changes, and particle fallout and re-entrainment. Results show that the leading-order parameters that control plume height are the mass eruption rate and the air entrainment coefficient, especially for weak plumes.This work was partially supported by the MED-SUV Project funded by the European Union (FP7 Grant Agreement n.308665). AC acknowledges a grant for visiting researchers of Earthquake Research Institute, Japan. The authors warmly thank the Guest Editors of JVGR Yujiro J. Suzuki (Univ. of Tokyo, Japan) for handling the paper and for the useful suggestions. Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi and Wim Degruyter are thanked for their constructive comments that have improved the manuscript.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft