STOCHASTIC ASSESSMENT OF THE ELECTRICAL ENERGY PRICE FOR HOUSEHOLD CONSUMERS

Leta 2007 se je tudi za gospodinjske odjemalce odprt trg z električno energijo. Posledica tega je svobodna izbira dobaviteljev električne energije za gospodinjstva, tržni pristop dobaviteljev, razvoj novih produktov električne energije in nanjo vezanih storitev. Stroški poslovanja dobaviteljev zaradi vseh naštetih posledic naraščajo, niža pa se ustvarjena razlika v ceni na dobavljeno MWh. Dobavitelji zato na prodajni strani iščejo optimume tudi v oblikovanju končne cene električne energije. Do leta 2020 mora SODO najmanj 80 % števcev za merjenje električne energije končnih odjemalcev v Republiki Sloveniji opremiti s t. i. naprednimi merilnimi sistemi. Cilj uvajanja naprednih merilnih sistemov je omogočanje sodelovanja odjemalcev na trgu električne energije, obračunavanje po dejanski porabi, uporaba naprednih načinov obračunavanja in drugih storitev ponudnikov na trgu. V pričujočem delu je predstavljen model za stohastično vrednotenje cene električne energije za gospodinjske odjemalce z uporabo metode Monte Carlo. Model se lahko uporabi za prilagajanje odjema v primeru naprednega tarifiranja za oblikovanje več tarifnega modela ali dinamičnega oblikovanja cen.In 2007 the electricity market for household customers was also opened. The basic consequence of this fact is free choice of the supplier of electrical energy, an encreased market approach towards small customers, development of new products and services. Due to this operational costs of the suppliers have increased since then and also the added value to selled MWh is much lower than in the past. Suppliers goal is then to optimize the end-consumer price taking into account the mentioned facts. Until 2020 the Slovenian DSO is about to replace at least 80% of the total counters with the so called »smart-metering« counters«. The goal is to make the consumers active partners in the market, to establish the accounting on real consumption base, the application of advanced methods of accounting which are customized to the supply/demand in the market. A model for stohastic estimation of the electrical energy product price for household consumers with the application of the »Monte Carlo« method is to be addressed and presented in this document. The model shall be used for the adaptation of consumption in case of the application of advanced tariff systems in order to form a multi-tariff model or for dynamic price forming