Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. A widely used approach to quantify this phenomenon is standardizing temperature data relative to the local mean and variability of a reference period. Here we demonstrate that this conventional procedure leads to exaggerated estimates of increasing temperature variability and extremes. For example, the occurrence of “two-sigma extremes” would be overestimated by 48.2% compared to a given reference period of 30 years with time-invariant simulated Gaussian data. This corresponds to an increase from a 2.0% to 2.9% probability of such events. We derive an analytical correction revealing that these artifacts prevail in recent studies. Our analyses...
Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of...
The frequency of climate extremes will change in response to shifts in both mean climate and climate...
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate...
Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. ...
Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. ...
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced a heatwave that broke all previous records. Estimate...
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has ...
The observed evolution of the global-mean surface temperature over the twentieth century reflects th...
Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demon...
In the paper on the heat wave in Paris (mentioned here) I discussed changes in the distribution of t...
The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are pa...
Abstract This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics of extremes in cl...
Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at global scale [1,2], with a rapid rate in...
Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of...
The frequency of climate extremes will change in response to shifts in both mean climate and climate...
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate...
Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. ...
Hot temperature extremes have increased substantially in frequency and magnitude over past decades. ...
In June 2021, the Pacific Northwest experienced a heatwave that broke all previous records. Estimate...
The discrepancy between recent observed and simulated trends in global mean surface temperature has ...
The observed evolution of the global-mean surface temperature over the twentieth century reflects th...
Large climate model ensembles are widely used to quantify changes in climate extremes. Here we demon...
In the paper on the heat wave in Paris (mentioned here) I discussed changes in the distribution of t...
The degree of uncertainty as to whether observed climate changes are due to human activity or are pa...
Abstract This editorial essay concerns the use (or lack thereof) of the statistics of extremes in cl...
Over the last 70 years, extreme heat has been increasing at global scale [1,2], with a rapid rate in...
Knowledge of the characteristics of natural climate variability is vital when assessing the range of...
The frequency of climate extremes will change in response to shifts in both mean climate and climate...
Changes in extreme weather may produce some of the largest societal impacts of anthropogenic climate...