Multi-model ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclones in 2010 and 2011 based on the Kalman Filter method

This study conducted 24- to 72-h multi-model ensemble forecasts to explore the tracks and intensities (central mean sea level pressure) of tropical cyclones (TCs). Forecast data for the northwestern Pacific basin in 2010 and 2011 were selected from the China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Japan Meteorological Agency, and National Centers for Environmental Prediction datasets of the Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble project. The Kalman Filter was employed to conduct the TC forecasts, along with the ensemble mean and super-ensemble for comparison. The following results were obtained: (1) The statistical–dynamic Kalman Filter, in which recent observations are given more importance and model weighting coefficients are adjusted over time, produced quite different results from that of the super-ensemble. (2) The Kalman Filter reduced the TC mean absolute track forecast error by approximately 50, 80 and 100 km in the 24-, 48- and 72-h forecasts, respectively, compared with the best individual model (ECMWF). Also, the intensity forecasts were improved by the Kalman Filter to some extent in terms of average intensity deviation (AID) and correlation coefficients with reanalysis intensity data. Overall, the Kalman Filter technique performed better compared to multi-models, the ensemble mean, and the super-ensemble in 3-day forecasts. The implication of this study is that this technique appears to be a very promising statistical–dynamic method for multi-model ensemble forecasts of TCs. © 2015 Springer-Verlag Wie