Reductions in the incidence of care need in West and East Germany between 1991 and 2003: compression-of-morbidity or policy effect?

Is the increase in the share of the older population in Germany inevitably connected with a parallel increase in frail people? We analyse the development of care need in West and East Germany between 1991 and 2003 on the basis of longitudinal data from the German Socio- Economic panel. A lower transition risk into care need for men exists in the period 1998-2003 as compared to the period 1991-1997. However, we are not sure if this effect is influenced by the introduction of the public Long-Term Care Need Insurance in 1995