The global trade slowdown : a new normal?

The post-Crisis decline in the growth rate of the ratio of global trade to GDP has been cause for some concern that global trade has peaked, and that we are now reaching a new normal in which trade levels will be weak in comparison to about a decade ago. Whether such a peak in trade was a defining moment in global trade or whether it is a cyclical phenomenon is one of the questions this eBook addresses.-- Part One: Introduction. Trade and growth – end of an era? Bernard Hoekman -- 1 World trade and production: A long-run view, Douglas A Irwin -- Part Two: Determinants of the slowdown -- 2 The global trade slowdown, Cristina Constantinescu, Aaditya Mattoo and Michele Ruta -- 3 Recent slowdown in global trade: Cyclical or structural?, Emine Boz, Matthieu Bussière and Clément Marsilli -- 4 Does the post-Crisis weakness of global trade solely reflect weak demand?, Patrice Ollivaud and Cyrille Schwellnus -- 5 The power of the few in determining trade accelerations and slowdowns, Guillaume Gaulier, Gianluca Santoni, Daria Taglioni and Soledad Zignago -- Part Three: GVCs, gravity and peak trade -- 6 Global value chains and the trade-income relationship: Implications for the recent trade slowdown, Byron Gangnes, Alyson C Ma and Ari Van Assche -- 7 World trade and income remain exposed to gravity, Hubert Escaith and Sébastien Miroudot -- 8 A value-added trade perspective on recent patterns in world trade, Paul Veenendaal, Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Arjan Lejour and Henk Kox -- 9 On the gravity of world trade’s slowdown, Matthieu Crozet, Charlotte Emlinger, Sébastien Jean -- Part Four: East Asian perspectives and the China factor -- 10 The relationship between trade and economic growth and a slowdown of exports in Korea, Taeho Bark -- 11 Growth and structural change in trade: Evidence from Japan, Koji Ito and Ryuhei Wakasugi -- 12 The global trade slowdown: Lessons from the East Asian electronics industry, Willem Thorbecke -- 13 China’s trade flows: Some conjectures, Menzie D Chinn -- 14 Trade impact of China’s transition to the ‘new normal’, Jiansuo Pei, Cuihong Yang and Shunli Yao -- Part Five: Policy perspectives -- 15 Crisis-era trade distortions cut LDC export growth by 5.5% per annum, Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz -- 16 Trade growth prospects: An African perspective, Ottavia Pesce, Stephen Karingi and Isabelle Gebretensaye -- 17 ‘Peak trade’ in the steel sector, Simon J. Evenett and Johannes Fritz -- 18 Supporting the micro-multinationals to help achieve peak trade, Usman Ahmed, Brian Bieron and Hanne Melin -- 19 Bold political leadership and vision can unlock global trade growth, Amgad Shehat