Trans fat and cardiovascular disease mortality : evidence from bans in restaurants in New York

This paper analyzes the impact of trans fat bans in restaurants on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality rates. Evidence from the medical community indicates that even low levels of artificial trans fat consumption increases the incidence of CVD such as heart disease. New York City and six New York State county health departments have responded to this public health concern by mandating that all food service establishments limit the amount of trans fat contained in their food products. Our analysis exploits the within-county variation over time in the trans fat content in the local food supply resulting from the policy mandate and the differential timing of its rollout across counties to estimate the mortality effects of reducing the amount of artificial trans fat in food away from home. The results indicate that trans fat bans cause a 4% reduction in CVD mortality rates, which translates into a reduction of about 12 CVD deaths per 100,000 persons per year. Using recent estimates of the Value of a Statistical Life-Year, we estimate that the fatal heart attacks prevented by trans fat bans, even if they extend life by only one year, can be valued at about $3 million per 100,000 persons annually