Supply chains, mega-regionals and multilateralism : a road map for the WTO

With the WTO trade talks deadlocked since 2008, the US and EU are turning towards preferential trade agreements. But these leave out the planet’s more dynamic traders – including large emerging economies such as China, India and Brazil – so such agreements can only have a relatively small positive impact. From a world welfare perspective, deals to further integrate markets need to be multilateral. The challenge is how to get there. This study considers alternative ways forward and proposes specific solutions for revitalizing multilateral trade liberalization and rule-making in the WTO. A key premise is that any road map must recognize that trade today involves supply chains and that these are impacted by many policies. The book recommends adoption of a ‘supply chain framework’ to help negotiators identify how an overall package can be constructed and identifies ways the WTO can become a forum for deliberation on new policy areas and learn from regional initiatives.-- Executive Summary; -- 1. From Doha to Bali – The Doha Development Agenda: Diverging objectives; Explanations for the deadlock; The shift away from the WTO and the 2013 Bali Ministerial; -- 2. Developments in Global Trade—Diverging performance: a multipolar world economy; Growth in ‘vertical specialization’ and ‘supply chain trade’; Foreign direct investment as a driver of trade growth; Services, data flows and digital trade; Changes in trade in agricultural and natural resource-based products. -- 3. Trends in Trade Policy and Trade Agreements --Changing political economy of trade policy; Trade agreements; Developing country participation in the WTO; Preferential trade agreements. -- 4. A Supply Chain-Informed Approach to Market Access. -- 5. Deliberation and Cooperation on New Issues—Deliberative mechanisms; Engaging with the PTAs: transparency and learning; Plurilateral cooperation and Annex IV WTO agreements; Defining a new agenda for multilateral cooperation. -- 6. Re-Thinking Economic Development in the WTO. -- Concluding Remarks. -- BibliographyPublished revised version of EUI RSCAS WP 2014/2