Conventional and more recent theories of the balance of payments with special regard to the Danish capital account

Defence date: 26 September 1979External supervisor: Niels ThygesenFirst made available online: 18 September 2015The overall aim of this dissertation is to investigate from a theoretical and empirical point of view thè determinants of thè capitai account of thè balance of payments with special regard to a small, open economy. As an empirical case study, I have chosen Denmark, which I know particularly well, but, unfortunately, Denmark is somewhat atypical to thè textbook models, because of its rather tight capital Controls.-- Chapter 1 introduction -- chapter 2 the theoretical framework -- section 2.1. Methodological reflections -- section 2.2. Conventional models used for balance of paymens analyses -- section 2.3. The financial framework -- section 2.4. Conventional and more recent theories of the balance of payments adjustment -- chapter 3 the economic and institutional background 3.1. A brief survey of internai and external development 3.2. Institutions in thè financial sector 3.3. Monetary policy: 1967-1976 3.4. The exchange regulations 3.4.1. Forward contracts for foreign exchange 3.5. The institutional exchange rate regime -- chapter 4 previous studies of the danish capital account -- chapter 5 presentation of data 5.1. The ideal case 5.2. The relation between stocks flows in practice 5.3. The period of investigation 5.4. Disaggregation into sectors 5.5. The computation of thè net financial wealth of thè private sector 5.6. Explanation of thè statistical figures > 153 5.7. Balance sheet of thè sectors 158 5.8. List of variables 160 -- appendix 5.1: sources of thè data -- chapter 6 the empirical analysis of capital account figures for denmark 6.1. Introduction 173 6.2. The statistical background 173 6.3. The theoretical models used for thè empirical analyses 6.4. Empirical results 6.5. Concluding remarks 6.6. A separate analysis of thè trade credit related to thè foreign trade on a monthly basis for thè period 1971-1977 6.7. A suiranary of thè resulta related to trade credit 6.8. Registered trade credit 220 -- appendix 6.1. Dominating currencies in danish foreign transactions -- appendix 6.2. Mean, standard deviation, and correlation of thè quarterly figures for capital flows -- appendix 6.3. More detailed information concerning thè most important regression equations -- chapter 7 the determinatici of the forward premium 7.1. Introduction 24 7.2. A theoretical model of thè market for forward exchange 7.3. A geometrical exposition of thè spot and forward markets 7.4. Summary of thè theoretical model 7.5. The application of thè theoretical model for an empirical analysis of thè forward market for foreign exchange 7.6. The danish case 272 7.7. Emperical findings 273 7.8. Concluding remarks 2 86 -- appendix 7.1. A comment on f. Mccormick, "forward exchange" -- chapter 8 conclusions 8.1. Introduction 8.2. Monetary policy 8.3. Fiscal policy 8.4. Public external borrowing 8.5. Restrictions on external capital flows 8.6. Intervention in thè market for forward exchange 8.7. The choice of exchange rate policy 8.8. Concluding remarks on economie policy 8.9. A wider perspective 309 -- annex 1 : list of variables and data 1.1) quarterly figures used for regression analyses 1.2) balance sheet figures 1.3) monthly figures used for regression analyses -- bibliograph