Evolution of Global Maritime Freight Energy demand and CO2 emissions: A BAU and 2DS Scenario

Global shipping lanes are the arteries of international trade. They are responsible for transporting 80% of global freight by volume, thereby providing a crucial service to international economic development. In 2012, the maritime freight sector emitted 615 MtCO2, comprising 2.0% of global CO2 emissions (IEA, 2015b). Projections indicate that CO2 emissions will triple between 2010 and 2050 - since demand growth in freight services is likely to be stronger than (energy) efficiency improvements the coming decades (ITF, 2015). The latter is partly due to the conservative attitude of the sector towards innovation and climate policy (Cames et al., 2015). Consequently, the European Parliament warns that if the ambition of the international shipping sector continues to fall behind efforts in other sectors, and if action to combat climate change is further postponed, their shares in global CO2 emissions may rise substantially to 17 % by 2050 (Cames et al., 2015). This study seeks to explain the evolution of final energy demand and CO2 emissions from the global maritime freight sector up to 2050. This is explored from a bottom-up perspective, following a BAU pathway and a 2DS pathway. The study also provides insight into the CO2 abatement options available to the shipping sector to move from BAU to 2DS emissions trajectories. Results indicate that according to BAU projections, CO2 emissions from international maritime freight will grow with a factor 2.73 between 2010 and 2050, to a total of 1937 MtCO2 per annum in 2050. However, the 2DS scenario requires a carbon budget for the maritime freight sector of 710 MtCO2 in 2050. This is technologically achievable through the following CO2 abatement options: 1) avoided demand of trade of oil, gas and coal 2) larger ships 3) improved operational and technical efficiency for new ships and retrofits 4) switching to LNG at 25% of the fuel mix and 5) switching to biofuel at 25% of the fuel mix. It is important to note that full implementation of these CO2 abatement options is immensely ambitious. As such, this study emphasizes the urgency of timely implementation of globally binding policy targeting GHG emissions from ships. IMO, policy makers and the academic community should bring all hands on deck to achieve this – to reduce CO2 emissions, and to design a roadmap to moving from a BAU to a 2DS future where global temperature increase is limited to 2°C only