Risk models for individual decision making

A decision analysis framework for risk models for health state transitions and valuations is described. Emphasis is placed on the sensitivity of choices among treatments to the absolute level of risk and the risk profile of the individual. The uses of Clinical Trials databases to inform decision aids is considered. We employ Markov models with Q-TWiST valuation of health states histories and examine the requirements for effective valuations of treatment alternatives for the individual.13 page(s