Electoral Volatility in Belgium (2009-2014). Is there a Difference between Stable and Volatile Voters?

Increasing voter volatility has led to a renewed research interest in determinants of switching party preferences. While previous research has mainly focused on the characteristics of volatile voters, less is known about how stable and volatile voters decide what party to vote for. Using panel data spanning two consecutive electoral cycles in Belgium, this study starts with the confirmation of earlier findings as we show that widely used determinants like political sophistication, disaffection add only modestly to our understanding of volatility. In a next step, we examine the vote choice process of stable and volatile voters. Our results indicate that in terms of determinants of the vote choice the two groups of voters do not seem to differ substantially, in contrast to some of the theoretical expectations about the effects of stronger voter volatility. Stable and volatile voters thus seem to be very much alike, implying that volatility is neither endangering nor enriching representative democracy. We close with some observations on how this finding qualifies our theoretical understanding of increasing levels of electoral volatility in liberal democracies.status: publishe