Crescimento econ??mico e restri????o externa no Brasil: uma an??lise a partir da hip??tese de Thirlwall

O objetivo principal desta disserta????o foi verificar se o balan??o de pagamentos ?? uma limita????o para o crescimento econ??mico brasileiro, no per??odo que compreende os anos de 1995 at?? 2013, considerando o arcabou??o te??rico de Thirlwall (1979). Para o alcance desse objetivo, foram estimadas as fun????es demanda por importa????es e exporta????es atrav??s de dois modelos econom??tricos: vetorial de corre????o de erros (VAR/VEC) e modelo estrutural em formato de estado de espa??o para o per??odo 1995-2013. As fun????es demanda por exporta????es e importa????es tamb??m foram estimadas por meio do modelo estrutural em formato de estado de espa??o para o per??odo 2001-2013, com a inten????o de verificar o impacto da eleva????o dos pre??os das commodities e o aumento na demanda por esses bens nos par??metros calculados. Pela an??lise, para esse per??odo, nota-se que o processo de commoditiza????o da pauta de exporta????es brasileira aprofundou o problema da restri????o externa brasileira. Na estima????o da fun????o demanda por exporta????es, utilizando o modelo VAR/VEC, foi inclu??da uma vari??vel que representou o pre??o das commodities. Os resultados emp??ricos deste trabalho confirmam que o balan??o de pagamentos ?? uma restri????o ao crescimento econ??mico brasileiro, dado tanto pela raz??o entre as elasticidades-renda das exporta????es e importa????es, como tamb??m pela baixa sensibilidade das exporta????es ao c??mbio real. Logo, o ajuste da balan??a comercial via altera????es suaves da taxa de c??mbio tem pouca efic??cia para o caso brasileiro. Al??m disso, as exporta????es s??o mais sens??veis aos pre??os das commodities do que ?? taxa de c??mbio real.The main objective of the present dissertation was to verify if the balance of payments was a limitation to Brazilian economic growth, in the period of the years 1995 to 2013, considering the Thirwall's Law (1979). In order to achieve this goal, export and import demand functions were estimated by two econometric models: vector error correction (VAR/VEC) and structural state space model for the period of 1995-2013. The export and import demand functions were also estimated by the structural state space model for the period of 2001-2013, with the intention of verifying the impact of the commodities price increase and the increase in the demand for these goods in the estimated parameters. According to the analysis of this period, it has been noticed that commoditization process in the Brazilian exports agenda has increased the problem of Brazilian external constraint. In the estimation of the export demand function, using the VAR/VEC model, it was included a variable which represented commodities price. The empiric results of this paper confirm that the balance of payments is a constraint to the Brazilian economic growth, given the ratio between exports and imports income elasticities and, also, the exports low sensitivity to the real exchange. Thus, the adjustment of the balance of trade by soft alterations in the exchange rate have little efficiency for the Brazilian case. Furthermore, the exports are more sensitive to the commodities price than to the real exchange rate