An??lise da regula????o econ??mica do setor el??trico brasileiro

Este trabalho apresenta uma avalia????o atual e abrangente do setor el??trico brasileiro e uma an??lise de sua regula????o econ??mica. O Objetivo ?? avaliar a regula????o econ??mica sob a perspectiva do impacto desta nas principais empresas do setor. A regula????o econ??mica tem a miss??o de incentivar que os investimentos sejam efetuados adequadamente e buscar a efici??ncia econ??mica necess??ria, sendo que setores de infraestrutura em geral possuem caracter??sticas econ??micas que os tornam monop??lios naturais, tais como investimentos intensos em capital e de longa matura????o, caso do setor el??trico brasileiro. No Brasil, a regula????o econ??mica surgiu como necessidade com a revis??o do papel do Estado frente ?? economia a partir da d??cada de 90 e teve o setor el??trico como um dos primeiros setores estrat??gicos a transitar do modelo estatal para um regime de mercado atrav??s de concess??es p??blicas. Ap??s o racionamento de energia el??trica de 2001/2002 o setor el??trico passou a ser alvo de pol??ticas p??blicas intervencionistas e de maior aten????o da sociedade. Desde ent??o diversos mudan??as regulat??rias foram executadas, nos neg??cios de distribui????o, transmiss??o e gera????o, tornando o marco regulat??rio atual inst??vel e inseguro. Desta forma, este trabalho analisa as principais empresas que englobam todos os neg??cios deste setor no Brasil, avaliando seus dados econ??mico-financeiros e objetiva mensurar o impacto individual de cada uma destas altera????es regulat??rias nos seus resultados. As avalia????es s??o realizadas com dados trimestrais a partir do ano 2000 e avaliam as duas ??ltimas revis??es da estrutura tarifaria destes neg??cios e a mudan??a estrutural promovida em 2012/2013 com a renova????o de algumas concess??es p??blicas. O trabalho desenvolve diversos modelos econom??tricos e seleciona o melhor modelo para cada empresa e a partir disso avalia as altera????es regulat??rias mais significativas. Os modelos desenvolvidos permitem inferir o impacto das altera????es para as empresas e suas similaridades. Desta forma, a principal contribui????o desse trabalho foi determinar como as altera????es j?? realizadas ou em curso comp??em o atual marco regulat??rio, que tem apresentado um quadro de incertezas normativas, hostilidade a novos investimentos, inseguran??a t??cnica no fornecimento de energia el??trica e at?? o momento n??o obteve a desejada modicidade tarif??ria.This dissertation presents a current and comprehensive review of the Brazilian electric sector and an analysis of its economic regulation. The objective is to evaluate the economic regulation from the perspective of its impact on major companies in Brazil. The economic regulation has a mission to encourage good investments are and seek the necessary economic efficiency. Generally, infrastructure sectors have economic characteristics that make them natural monopolies, such as intense capital investment and long- maturity, like the Brazilian electric sector. In Brazil, economic regulation has emerged as a need to review the role of the State in the economy from the 90s and it had the electric sector as a strategic sector of the first to transition from state model for a market regime through public concessions. After the electricity rationing in 2001/2002, the electric sector has become the subject of interventionist public policies and more attention from society. Since then, several regulatory changes have been implemented in the business of distribution, transmission and generation; making the current regulatory governance unstable and insecure. Thus, this dissertation analyzed the main companies that compose every business in this sector in Brazil, assessing their economic and financial data and measuring the individual impact of each of these regulatory changes on their results. The evaluations were performed with quarterly data from 2000 and reviewed the last two revisions of the tariff structure of the business and structural change made in 2012/2013 with the renovation of public concessions. The dissertation developed several econometric models, selected the best model for each company, and from that assessed the most significant regulatory changes. The developed models allow inferring the impact of changes to the companies and their similarities. Thus, the main contribution of this work was to determine how changes already completed or in progress comprise the current regulatory governance, which has presented a regulatory guidelines uncertainty, hostility to new investment, technical uncertainty in the supply of electricity and yet not reached the desired price reduction