Explaining the real exchange rate in Kazakhstan, 1996–2003: Is Kazakhstan vulnerable to the Dutch disease?

Kazakhstan possesses extensive natural resource reserves expected to yield significant export revenues. Since independence in 1991, the composition of exports has changed in favor of energy-related sectors. In the context of such evidence and considerable expected future revenues, researchers have pointed to possible Dutch disease effects. This paper examines whether Kazakhstan is vulnerable to this condition. Using an extended version of the Balassa-Samuelson model including the price of oil, we find evidence that changes in those terms had a significant effect on the real exchange rate during 1996-2003, suggesting symptoms of significant Dutch disease effects in Kazakhstan