Smallholder vulnerability and response to drought

Previous sections have outlined the drought climatology of the Kirinyaga-Embu-Machakos area and the results of several agroclimatic models that indicate agricultural and livestock potentials in different climatic scenarios. Even using very simple models, it is clear that climate and weather are the primary variables in determining potential productivity (and its temporal and spatial patterns) in the area. The next step is to trace the importance of variability in agricultural and livestock production to smallholder agriculturalists. Over 80% of the population of Kenya resides in the rural areas, and the majority are smallholder farmers. Development policy in Kenya has long recognized the importance of drought in planning agricultural and livestock development. It must also incorporate consideration of the smallholders’ vulnerability to drought and their means of coping with recurrent droughts of various magnitudes and durations