Global emissions of fluorinated greenhouse gases 2005-2050 with abatement potentials and costs

This study uses the GAINS model framework to estimate current and future emissions of the fluorinated greenhouse gases HFCs/HCFCs, PFCs and SF6 (F-gases), their abatement potentials and costs for twenty source sectors and 162 countries/regions, which are aggregated to produce global estimates. Global F-gas emissions are estimated at 0.95 Pg CO2eq in 2005 with an expected increase to 3.7 Pg CO2eq in 2050 if application of control technology remains at the current level. There are extensive opportunities to reduce emissions using existing technology and alternative substances with low global warming potential. Estimates show that it would be technically feasible to reduce cumulative F-gas emissions by 86 percent between 2018 and 2050. A reduction in cumulative emissions by 72 percent is estimated possible at a marginal abatement cost below 10 € / t CO2eq. We also find that future F-gas abatement is expected to be relatively more costly for developing than for developed countries due to differences in the sector distribution of emissions and abatement potentials