Climate, Land, Energy & Water Strategies: A Case Study of Mauritius

The study of the Island of Mauritius presented here is a collaborative effort between the International Atomic Energy Agency in Vienna, the Royal Swedish Institute of Technology in Stockholm, the Agricultural Research & Extension Unit in Quatre Bornes, Mauritius and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The Climate, Land, Energy and Water Strategies project (CLEWS) deals with integration of water, energy and land-use models to quantify resource use, greenhouse gas emissions and costs associated with meeting energy, water and food security goals. For this purpose the WEAP water model, the LEAP energy model and the AEZ land production planning tool were applied in an integrated fashion to determine (a) crop suitability under rain-fed and irrigated conditions for current and future projected climate, (b) potentials of bio-fuel feedstock crops, (c) the practicality and impact of crop changes, and (d) measures to ensure adequate water supplies in the face of an observed and projected trend of decreasing rainfall. A core component in this study is the assessment of alternative land and water use options in view of anticipated climate change and socio-economic trends. For this purpose the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) methodology and database framework has been applied at a resolution of 3 arc-seconds (ca. 100 m grid). Climate change results indicate significant changes in rain-fed crop production potentials, particularly a decline in the northern and western parts of the island. Results show that total water resources availability is expected to diminish due to climate change while water demand for agriculture, industrial and domestic use is increasing. This will trigger planning for extra water storage systems, for an overall expansion and upgrading of current water supply infrastructure, but also and foremost for more efficient use of water resources, in particular for irrigation. The high water demand of the dominating sugarcane production on the island may locally require the introduction of alternative less water demanding cropping systems