Projections of religiosity for Spain

In this study we carry out multistate population projections by religion and religiosity for Spain in the period 2010-2050. First we estimate the base population, for the year 2005 by age, sex, religion and religious intensity. We identify the size and composition of migration flows by denomination and religiosity. Differentials in childbearing patterns by religion and degree of religiosity are then calculated. We also estimate and model age- and sex-specific religious conversion rates by denomination and religiosity. We further assume that the child's religion and religiosity assumed is identical to that of mother's until the age of 15, so that the fertility differentials affect the variation in the religious (both denomination and intensity) composition of the next generation. We assume that there are no causal relation between mortality and religion. Several scenarios, based on combining different assumptions for fertility and migration, covering wider uncertainty range of the demographic future are constructed. The Spanish population disaggregated by age, sex, religion, and degree of religiosity was projected till 2050 according to these scenarios. The results are then analyzed for the sensitivity in the future structure of the population to the different assumptions on fertility and migration of future Spanish population