A method for disaggregate household forecasts

A method for making household forecasts is proposed "which yields both the total number of households and the number present in any predetermined subgroup of households. The method presupposes that incomplete information is available on the transitions of persons between various age and household categories over a period of time. The forecasting method is capable of spelling out the consequences for the prognoses of adding different amounts of external information to the computations. Such information may include population forecasts by age and sex trend-based information like restrictions on the size distribution of households econometric relations between household formation and incomes etc." The forecasting method is described in theoretical terms. "This description includes the use of information-theoretic arguments to adjust the forecast to external data. The theoretical development is illustrated by an application of the method to data for the Stockholm region [of Sweden]. In relation to this application an outline is given of the use of the methodology for long-term projections.