Application of Monte Carlo simulation in risk management

The global financial crisis of 2008, which forced the central banks around the world to defend a financial stability by using non-standard instruments such as quantitative easing, has resulted in, among other things, the fall of the interest rates to zero, and even to negative values in some countries, which has become the new normal in banking field. In this thesis, we focused on the Czech financial market, and we used the method of Monte Carlo simulation in the Vasicek model for the prediction of the future development of interest rates, both short and long maturities. The model shows that in the short term the rates may fall to negative values, but the prediction shows rising interest rates up to their own equilibrium. The 3-months and 6-months rates show surprisingly uncharacteristic behavior, where their long-term decline and higher volatility caused calculation of the equilibrium as a negative value in the Vasicek model. Than we apply the results in the model for calculating changes in the prices of bonds, which are negatively correlated with the interest rates, and we explore the repricing costs for the bondholders. Also, we will show that commercial banks may control the impact of the interest rate risk on capital by composition of financial assets in various categories, where the accounting classification of the instrument is critical to revaluation of the capital