Model predicting the evolution of the prison population (PRISMOD)

The certified methodology describes the newly developed PRISMOD simulation model and the software that implements it. The main purpose of the model is to project the evolution of the sentenced prison population in the Czech Republic over the next 10 years. The model adopts the inflow-outflow approach and models the prison population as a function of the underlying parameters that are estimated from statistical data. The key parameters are the number of crimes recorded, the probability of charges and conviction, probability of a prison sentences, the sentence length, and the probability of parole release from prison. The model also takes into account the prisoners that enter prison upon the probation, parole, or community service violations. The prison population is modeled separately by nine crime categories and by high-security and low-security prisons