Hanging off Newspoll

A bad Newspoll result suggests that Malcolm Turnbull has provoked the economic anxieties of the electorate. The question is: why? NEWSPOLL has shifted two points in two-party-preferred terms over the past fortnight, putting Labor slightly ahead, at 51–49, for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became prime minister. Within Australia’s version of the beltway, this has set off several clanging bells. As a general rule, attempting to identify the drivers of fluctuations in individual opinion polls is a mug’s game. Surveys bob up and down for no real reason, or they’re pushed by deeper underlying dynamics or events from weeks or months ago. I’ve noted here before that Newspoll’s preference flows are probably overly generous to Labor; today’s primary vote numbers (Coalition on 41, Labor on 36, Greens 11 and others 12) would at most elections produce a likely 50–50 after preferences. And if this were a move from 57 to 55 rather than 51 to 49, no one would be flicking the drama switch. But sometimes, on rare occasions, poll shifts can reasonably be assigned to particular occurrences, and this is very likely one of them. It’s a good bet that the Coalition’s dip into the red is due to Turnbull’s suddenly announced plan last week to hand back income-taxing powers to the states… Read the full articl