Using components of lens model feedback and domain knowledge to improve prediction in probabilistic environments

Brunswik's lens model (1955, 1956) was used in two experiments to provide feedback to subjects to use in improving baseball team win predictions. The lens model decomposes judgment into three component parts which were used as feedback; cue-criterion relationships (task information, TI), subject cue-utilization relationships (cognitive information, CI), and the relations between the criterion and subject predictions (functional validity information, FVI). In experiment 1, subjects given TI + CI or TI + CI + FVI improved their predictions to a greater extent than subjects given TI. It was also shown that subjects' prediction performance in the TI condition was moderated by domain knowledge. In experiment 2, subjects were unable to improve their performance in any of the lens model feedback conditions (TI, TI + CI, and modified CI). The type of domain knowledge termed "task knowledge" was found to be the most important predictor of performance