Framing branching points for transition: policy and pathways for UK heat decarbonisation

This paper develops the use of the branching point concept as a tool to support key decisions for reorienting systems for sustainability. In this approach, a pathway is seen as arising from accumulation of many specific decisions which create momentum in a particular direction and so reinforce the irreversibility of the pathway. Three complementary approaches to branching point analysis are identified within the transitions literature: 1) in pathway-scenarios for sustainability, 2) framing key decision-points in historical analysis, 3) to deconstruct the politics of transition pathways. A case study of UK heat decarbonisation is used to apply the branching point concept. This analysis highlights the tension where a policy approach, framed by a sector-wide target, interacts with distinct socio-technical responses and an alternative policy approach to decision-points is proposed. This paper demonstrates the potential to develop branching point analysis into a tool to support and help structure policy decisions for transition