Regional modelling of domestic energy consumption using stakeholder generated visions as scenarios

UK Government Carbon emission reduction targets require large scale retrofitting of the built environment. Visions of a city region in 2050 have been developed through an in-depth participatory back-casting and foresight process. This paper will explore the modelling techniques required to simulate the necessary changes to achieve the retrofitting targets for dwellings. All of the visions achieve the 80% reductions required, using different pathways. Building on earlier work based on “Bottom Up” urban scale modelling, this paper will describe the modelling of large areas using extensive data sources on the existing stock. Together with the scenario work, this research builds modelling of societal changes including population and household size, with domestic energy demand. The paper discusses the methods used and the sources of the data required to model these population and household changes. The results generated from the model show the retrofit pathways from 1990, through present day emissions, to the required levels to achieve the targets set for 2050. In addition, the outcomes of the research are visualised through mapping of the pathways across a City region