Constraining early-time dust formation in core-collapse supernovae

There is currently a severe discrepancy between theoretical models of dust formation in core-collapse supernovae (CCSNe), which predict $\gtrsim 0.01$ M$_\odot$ of ejecta dust forming within $\sim 1000$ days, and observations at these epochs, which infer much lower masses. We demonstrate that, in the optically thin case, these low dust masses are robust despite significant observational and model uncertainties. For a sample of 11 well-observed CCSNe, no plausible model reaches carbon dust masses above $10^{-4}$ M$_\odot$, or silicate masses above $\sim 10^{-3}$ M$_\odot$. Optically thick models can accommodate larger dust masses, but the dust must be clumped and have a low ($