Exploration of alternative frameworks for transportation infrastructure strategy development

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 2010.Cataloged from PDF version of thesis.Includes bibliographical references.This thesis introduces the notion of a strategy development framework for transportation infrastructure systems. A strategy development framework has several dimensions: the organizations that own.infrastructure, the ownership structure employed, the type and quantity of revenues generated, the revenue allocation methods for re-investing in the infrastructure, the degree of integration across transportation modes and other sectors, and the geographic scales controlled. We analyze the behavior of a range of alternative frameworks through a combined quantitative-qualitative approach, using Portugal's highway transportation system as the context. Drawing on strategy literature from the management field, we begin by defining and characterizing a range of alternative strategy development frameworks for transportation infrastructure systems. Next, we analyze these frameworks quantitatively using an agent-based model which simulates the evolution of Portugal's intercity highway network over time and space. By varying the frameworks' dimensions (e.g., type of revenue, revenue allocation method, geographic scale of control), we observe differences in the resulting investment decisions for the network. We evaluate the performance of these investment decisions according to a range of metrics in order to determine which frameworks lead to desirable outcomes. The simulation, however, cannot fully capture the relationship between a framework and investment outcomes for the highway system, so we complement the model with a qualitative analysis which combines empirical cases and predicted stakeholder dynamics. The integrated quantitative-qualitative evaluation allows us to explain a wider range of trade-offs associated with each alternative framework. The contributions of this research are threefold: (1) we offer the notion of strategy development, which allows for recognition and inclusion of emergent outcomes, as an alternative to the narrower concept of transportation planning; (2) we determine the influence of advanced transportation technologies (typically studied for their operational benefits) on strategy development; and (3) we explore the consequences of fundamental changes to the strategy development framework, notably along the dimension of geographic scale. While our theory and methods are applied to the case of Portugal's highway system-and we strive to produce results of value to that nation-we believe they can be profitably applied in other transportation contexts as well.by Travis P. Dunn.Ph.D