Reliability Optimization Model of Stop-Skipping Bus Operation with Capacity Constraints

In a bus line with high passenger demand, the stop-skipping operation can benefit both users and operators as well as improve the service level of bus line, but it usually cannot be effectively adopted by operators because of the unordered operation of buses and the discomfort of waiting passenger at stops. Therefore, the stop-skipping operation requires higher reliability for stop serving. This paper proposes a reliable stop-skipping service design with holding strategy by taking into account bus capacity constraints. Under a stop-skipping service, the holding strategy is used to balance the interval of stop serving rather than the headway of buses. Meanwhile, to reflect the actual boarding process of waiting passengers, the number of left-over passengers and the waiting time are calculated during serving time and holding time, respectively. The objective function is to minimize the total costs of bus operation system. Besides, a Genetic Algorithm combined with Monte Carlo Simulation method is defined and implemented to solve the reliability optimization model. Finally, a numerical example based on a bus route in Changchun city is carried out to test the reliability optimization model. Results showed that the reliability optimization strategy can improve the stability of stop service and then save cost of passengers’ travel time