Spatiotemporal Evolution Pattern and Driving Factors of Higher-Education Population in China

The spatial and temporal distribution of the higher-education population (HEP) is a fundamental characteristic of the development level of higher education in a region or a country. Based on the annual population sampling statistics from 2000 to 2015, the spatiotemporal evolution pattern of the HEP in China is systematically analyzed. Meanwhile, 9 driving factors related to natural conditions and socioeconomic conditions of average slope, average elevation, the city location, the city size, high-speed railways, highways, gross domestic product (GDP) density, nonagricultural population, and population density of 2000 and 2010 at the municipal level are constructed. Then, the factors driving the distribution of the HEP are quantitatively analyzed using the geodetector model. The results show that the centroid of the HEP, shifting from the northeast to the southwest from 2000 to 2010, is markedly different from that of the total population from 2000 to 2015 in China. Despite their different moving directions, the distance between the two centroids is decreasing, indicating both significant regional differences of the HEP in China and a narrowing gap between the HEP and the total population in recent years. The results of the factor detector of 2000 and 2010 suggest that the proportion of the nonagricultural population and the city location are the main driving factors of the distribution of the HEP, with driving forces between 0.494 and 0.627, followed by the city size, highways, and GDP density, with driving forces are between 0.199 and 0.302. It indicates that urbanization levels and urban locations are the main factors affecting the spatial distribution of the HEP. The results of the interaction detection reveal that the interaction of the nonagricultural population and the GDP density can explain 92.7% of the spatial variety of the HEP in 2000, while that of the nonagricultural population and the population density can explain 97.6% of the spatial variety of the HEP in 2010, which reflects a more balanced development of the HEP. In addition, a large proportion of the HEP transfers from economically developed areas to densely populated areas