Forecasting Water Level Of Jhelum River Of Kashmir Valley India, Using Prediction And Earlywarning System

The hydrological disasters have the largest share in global disaster list and in 2016 the Asia’s share was 41% of the global occurrence of flood disasters. The Jammu and Kashmir is one of the most flood-prone regions of the Indian Himalayas. In the 2014 floods, approximately 268 people died and 168004 houses were damaged. Pulwama, Srinagar, and Bandipora districts were severely affected with 102, 100 and 148 km 2 respectively submerged in floods. To predict and warn people before the actual event occur, the Early Warning Systems were developed. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) improve the preparedness of community towards the disaster. The EWS does not help to prevent floods but it helps to reduce the loss of life and property largely. A flood monitoring and EWS is proposed in this research work. This system is composed of base stations and a control center. The base station comprises of sensing module and processing module, which makes a localised prediction of water level and transmits predicted results and measured data to the control center. The control center uses a hybrid system of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) model and the supervised machine learning technique, Linear Multiple Regression (LMR) model for water level prediction. This hybrid system presented the high accuracy of 93.53% for daily predictions and 99.91% for hourly predictions