Assessing the Spatial Dependence of the Shipped Products Volume in Dynamics

Purpose of the study. The relevance of studying the issues of assessing the volume of shipped products is due to at least two reasons. On the one hand, its role as a resultant indicator of the activity of territorial systems, on the other, its primary nature in relation to the subsequent stages of distribution and consumption. The increase in production is directly related to domestic consumption and the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods to foreign markets, which is characterized by the volume of retail and wholesale trade. The need to search for opportunities for growth in production determines the need to expand the existing ideas about these connections, including the effects of time and space. In the context of the economic space network development, the changes cannot be ignored in production and trade processes in some territories in isolation from the processes taking place in other territories. At the same time, it is obvious that any current state is a consequence of the position achieved by the considered territory in the past. The purpose of the study is to assess the spatial dependence of the volume of the shipped products in dynamics in relation to the indicators of wholesale and retail trade.Materials and methods. The paper evaluates spatial autocorrelation using univariate and bivariate Moran's indexes – indicators, characterizing production, distribution and exchange of goods. Based on the selected spatial dependencies, three models were consistently built on the panel data from 2010-2019 for 85 regions of the Russian Federation: pooled model, panel-based spatial lag model; model with a spatially weighted factor variable. The calculations were performed using the GeoDA program.Results. The results showed that spatial effects should be taken into account in the study of the volume of products shipped. The value of the global Moran's index shows a high direct connection between the regions of the Russian Federation in terms of the volume of shipped products (0.29-0.39), with a weak connection for the wholesale trade turnover (0.06-0.18). In turn, the bivariate Moran's index showed that the volume of shipped products has a spatial relationship with the turnover of wholesale trade in neighboring regions of the Russian Federation. Domestic final consumption, characterized by per capita retail trade turnover, also has a positive effect on the volume of products shipped per capita. The constructed models showed that the volume of shipped products is positively affected by an increase in wholesale trade in the region and in neighboring territories, retail trade in the region and the development of production in neighboring territories.Conclusion. The article discusses a model that allows linking the development of the production of goods with the state of the channels of their promotion both inside the territory and outside it. At the same time, the use of panel data in the calculations helps to obtain reliable and meaningful estimates in the models. Within the framework of the proposed models, it was possible to identify the connection between production and wholesale trade, which was not previously determined on cross-sectional data. The results obtained make it possible to improve the quality of decisions made in matters of the territorial organization of economic activity in the regions, contributing to the development of production that depends on the possibilities of promoting manufactured goods through the wholesale and retail network