Joint modelling of colorectal cancer recurrence and death after resection using multi-state model with cured fraction

Abstract Curing of colorectal cancer (CRC) occurs at the time of resection but it is not immediately observable. If the cancer is not completely eliminated, the patient will not be cured of cancer and will experience recurrence as the tumor has regrown to a detectable size. The main propose of the present study was to assess the effects of different covariates on the probability of being cured as well as the time-to-recurrence, and time-to-death in CRC patients by using multi-state cure model. The information of 283 patients with CRC, who underwent resection, from 2000 to 2015 in Imam Khomeini Hospital of Hamadan, Iran, were analyzed. The results of multi-state cure model reveal that females and who experience metastasis were more likely to be apparently cured. It has been shown that sex has a significant effect on the time-to-recurrence given patient was in the not cured group. The survival time of patients of the not cured group was affected by the stage of disease. However, the survival of the apparently cured patients were affected by age at diagnosis and metastasis status. The multi-state cure model provided a flexible framework to study the effects of prognostic factors simultaneously on the transition between different states and the probability of being apparently cured of CRC