Transformation of river runoff in permafrost zone of the Central Siberia under various scenarios of forest cover and climate change

The rise in air temperature that has taken place in recent decades both globally and on the territory of the Russian Federation has an impact on many environmental processes, including the hydrological regime of rivers. According to the data of meteorological stations for 1952–2012, the change in the main climatic indicators in the studied territory of the Central Siberia was estimated. Analysis of meteorological data confirms that over the past decades, there has been a change in the average annual air temperature. Changes of air temperature in the study area are characterized by a stable tendency to warming at a rate of 0.26–0.36 °С/10 years. The average air temperatures for the warm (V–IX) and cold (X–IV) months have a positive tendency to increase. Based on cartographic materials and satellite images, data on dynamic of forest cover were obtained for nine catchments located within three landscape zones – forest-tundra, northern and middle taiga. A regional model of the relationship between river runoff with forest cover of catchments, geographical coordinates and average annual air temperature was development. Numerical experiments with the obtained model showed that an increase in the forest cover of the river catchments in northern latitudes contributes to an increase in the annual runoff, and in southern regions, to its decrease. The results obtained can serve as a theoretical basis for a sustainable forest management in order to obtain the desired hydrological effect