Political and environmental risks influence migration and human smuggling across the Mediterranean Sea.

Since 2007 the number of refugees fleeing conflict and violence has doubled to more than 25 million. We leverage high frequency data on migration, sea conditions, and riots to investigate how political and environmental risks influence migration and human smuggling across the Mediterranean Sea. We report results from two observational studies. A high frequency time-series study demonstrates that risks alter migration patterns. An event study design demonstrates the effectiveness of a policy intervention that targeted Libyan militias engaged in human smuggling. The results highlight the important role of environmental and political risks in transit countries and their implications for migration and human smuggling