Analysis of the Coal Sector under Carbon Constraints

Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/).Application of the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model to assessment of the future of coal under climate policy revealed the need for an improved representation of load dispatch in the representation of the electric sector. A new dispatching algorithm is described and the revised model is applied to an analysis of the future of coal use to 2050 and 2100 under alternative assumptions about CO2 prices, nuclear expansion and prices of natural gas. Particular attention is devoted to the potential role of coal-electric generation with CO2 capture and storage. An appendix provides a comparison of a subset of these results with and without the more detailed model of electric dispatch.Development of the analysis model used in this research was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological and Environmental Research [BER] (DE-FG02-94ER61937), by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (XA-83042801-0), the Electric Power Institute, and by a consortium of industry and foundation sponsors