A stemness-based eleven-gene signature correlates with the clinical outcome of hepatocellular carcinoma

Abstract Background Cumulative evidences have been implicated cancer stem cells in the tumor environment of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) cells, whereas the biological functions and prognostic significance of stemness related genes (SRGs) in HCC is still unclear. Methods Molecular subtypes were identified by cumulative distribution function (CDF) clustering on 207 prognostic SRGs. The overall survival (OS) predictive gene signature was developed, internally and externally validated based on HCC datasets including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA), GEO and ICGC datasets. Hub genes were identified in molecular subtypes by protein-protein interaction (PPI) network analysis, and then enrolled for determination of prognostic genes. Univariate, LASSO and multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to assess prognostic genes and construct the prognostic gene signature. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Kaplan-Meier curve and nomogram were used to assess the performance of the gene signature. Results We identified four molecular subtypes, among which the C2 subtype showed the highest SRGs expression levels and proportions of immune cells, whereas the worst OS; the C1 subtype showed the lowest SRGs expression levels and was associated with most favorable OS. Next, we identified 11 prognostic genes (CDX2, PON1, ADH4, RBP2, LCAT, GAL, LPA, CYP19A1, GAST, SST and UGT1A8) and then constructed a prognostic 11-gene module and validated its robustness in all three datasets. Moreover, by univariate and multivariate Cox regression, we confirmed the independent prognostic ability of the 11-gene module for patients with HCC. In addition, calibration analysis plots indicated the excellent predictive performance of the prognostic nomogram constructed based on the 11-gene signature. Conclusions Findings in the present study shed new light on the role of stemness related genes within HCC, and the established 11-SRG signature can be utilized as a novel prognostic marker for survival prognostication in patients with HCC