A model for the determination of optimal electric generating system expansion patterns

Essentially constitutes a M.S. thesis in the Sloan School of Management and the Dept. of Civil EngineeringLong range electric generating capacity expansion planning requires consideration of a diverse range of issues including economic and financial evaluations, environmental protection, and overall system reliability. To determine the optimum system expansion plan, it is necessary to create a synthesis of combinations of possible technical alternatives, observe the intertemporal effects of the system along the dimensions of the problem, and choose the set of alternatives which best meets the objectives while satisfying all constraints. A system of integrated techniques and computer codes (called the Generation Expansion Model) has been formulated to evaluate the economic, environmental, and reliability aspects of regional generation expansion strategies. The computer codes comprising the model are used serially and in an iterative manner to find the set of plant and site alternatives and the corresponding plant operating histories which will minimize the total present worth of all capital, operating, and fuel costs while satisfying the demand for electricity, fuel availability, site availability, pollution limits, and reliability constraints. Prototypical versions of the three major submodels of the Generation Expansion Model exist; initial testing of the capabilities and sensitivities of the first two submodels and their interface is currently being performedNSF Contract no. GI-3493