Analysis of issues and trends in the growth of fuel cell firms

Thesis (S.M.M.O.T.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Sloan School of Management, Management of Technology Program, 2003.Includes bibliographical references (leaves 49-50).This electronic version was submitted by the student author. The certified thesis is available in the Institute Archives and Special Collections.Recent scientific progress has shown significant signs that fuel cells will become a tremendous and significant part of distributed energy markets in the future. Fuel Cell technology though first discovered in late 1830s by Sir William Grove, a Welsh judge and scientist only took off when NASA first introduced them in the Gemini space program in 1960s. Technology evolution and the need for a clean energy source for the space program caused the renewed interest in Fuel Cells. A significant amount of progress and numerous investments have been made securing a future for Fuel Cells. The question that remains is not if Fuel Cells will develop into an industry, but when might it evolve and deliver on the promises so intrepidly set forth by researchers, corporations, and investors. The question has been debated many times over in the popular press. For certain, no one is exactly sure what 'when' really means. What this thesis is more interested in is the "how". How will Fuel Cells technology and markets evolve? What factors will determine the industry structure that will influence the development of this industry? How large can we expect this industry to grow? What will be the key drivers for growth? How will different members of this industry facilitate the development of this technology? What form will the industry take? What are some of the current challenges facing the fuel cell manufacturing companies in their growth? This Thesis investigates the formation and growth of Fuel Cell firms in Massachusetts, New York and Connecticut (within 150 miles of Boston) and the current issues facing the upper Management / Founders of these companies. By studying the key factors and developments in these industries different lessons and patterns can be extrapolated which may help answer some of the burning questions surrounding fuel cell industry evolution and where they are on the technology S curve. The basic framework used in this study is taken from the paper written by Gransey to analyze High-tech firms' growth. Eight firms were interviewed using a questionnaire format developed earlier by Prof Elicia Maine to study the materials industry growth. The results of this analysis do indeed conclude that the firms felt that fuel cell is a great product, but it has limitations. It is impossible at this point to beat the grid in cost or reliability with a single piece of equipment- the grid has multiple redundant generating devices and is virtually free. The value of a fuel cell is the ability to have much higher power quality at your location to increase your grid reliability an additional 9 times. It is currently expensive to do this, but no other technology has this capability. Several companies have been formed with lot of optimism and potential for a huge payoff. People are less likely to share ideas in this industry compared to other industries. Secrecy is the norm in this industry and they rely on the patent protection early on and seem to have lot of interactions with the local lawyers for IP filing and protection. Most of the firms did not participate in local industry organizations for the fear of exposing their perceived advantage. Currently fuel cell firms are facing economic challenges due to the downturn in the economy which in turn resulted in the slow down in fuel cell technology research investments. Also as the company grows they are realizing that the market risk is higher than what they have anticipated when they started. This may have an interesting consequence related to the sales and marketing strategy of these companies. Risk is still high, less technology risk than economic and market risk.by Srinivas Chilukuri.S.M.M.O.T