Sequential climate decisions under uncertainty : an integrated framework

Includes bibliographical references (p. 27-28).Abstract in HTML and technical report in HTML and PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/)In this paper, we present an integrated framework for structuring and evaluating sequential greenhouse gas abatement policies under uncertainty. The analysis integrates information concerning the magnitude, timing, and impacts of climate change with data on the likely effectiveness and cost of possible response options, using reduced-scale representations of the global climate system drawn from the MIT Integrated Global System Model. To illustrate the method, we explore emissions control policies of the form considered under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change