Financial Development and Economic Growth-Causal Relations in Japan, Taiwan and Korea

[[abstract]]自1997發生亞洲金融風暴以來，日本、臺灣與韓國所受的衝擊不盡相同，而金融體系在這三國的經濟成長過程中究竟扮演何種角色，亦成為深受矚目的課題。文獻上金融發展與經濟成長的關係，主要有三個不同的觀點，而其政策含意亦大相逕庭。對日本、臺灣與韓國而言，銀行與股市為該國金融體系的兩大支柱，因此本文同時考慮了銀行體系與股市的發展，並從時間數列的觀點，檢視這三國之金融發展與經濟成長的因果關係。本文實證結果顯示，探討日本、臺灣與韓國之金融發展與經濟成長的關係，除了銀行體系，股市是不可忽略的重要部門。再者，銀行體系與股市發展%在三個國家的經濟發展過程中所扮演的角色，以及對經濟成長的影響，存在相當顯著的差異。最後，臺灣與韓國在樣本期間銀行體系的發展對經濟成長幾乎無貢獻。本文並嘗試從經濟環境與制度的角度給予前述實證結果可能的解釋。[[abstract]]Utilizing time series method, the article has examined the causal relations of output growth, banking development and stock market development in Japan, Taiwan and Korea. The empirical results reveal that the existence and direction of causal relations in the three countries differ substantially. Besides banking system, the results however find the stock market is important in investigating the relations of financial development and economic growth in the three countries. Furthermore the banking system has little contribution to the economic growth of Taiwan and Korea. The empirical evidence shows the roles of banking system and stock market play in economic development and their effects on economic growth are different in Japan, Taiwan and Korea. These results can be explained by historical differences of the three countries' economies and provide some important policy implications