The Causal Relationships among Inflation, Financial Development, and Economic Growth－Empirical Studies on Taiwan, Korea, and Japan

碩士論文[[abstract]]由於目前實證文獻僅在討論通貨膨脹的高低會影響金融發展與經濟成長之間的關係，尚未有直接探討三者之間因果關係的文獻，故本文目的為找出三者之間的Granger因果關係並做跨國比較分析。本文以臺灣、韓國及日本為研究對象，探討通貨膨脹、金融發展與經濟成長之因果關係。在研究方法上即針對個別國家進行時間序列（time series）分析，利用向量誤差修正模型（vector error correction model, VECM）及Granger（1969）所提出的因果檢定（causality test）。實證結果顯示，通貨膨脹、金融發展與經濟成長三者之間的因果關係在三個國家中不盡相同，可能與各國經濟環境不同和金融制度的差異有關。此外，與張淑華（2004）結論相比較，由於本文多考慮了通貨膨脹變數，使得金融發展與經濟成長之間的因果關係也有所差異，也說明了通貨膨脹在探討金融發展與經濟成長中扮演著重要角色。[[abstract]]Existing empirical documents only discussed that the level of the inflation will influence the relation between the financial development and economic growth. The issue about the causal relationships among inflation rate, financial development and economic growth is not discussed directly. The purpose of this paper is to find out Granger causal relationships among the three and make transnational comparative analysis. The article regards Taiwan, Korea and Japan as the research object. The approach of this paper uses time-series data and the vector error correction model（VECM）to investigate the Granger causal relationships among inflation, financial development and economic growth. The result shows that the causal relationships in three countries are not the same. It could be different from various countries'' economic environment and financial systems. In addition, conclusions compared with Shu-Hwa Chang（2004）, because this paper considers inflation rate, it is different in the causal relationships of financial development and economic growth. It also indicates that the inflation is playing an important role in investigating the relationship between financial development and economic growth