A study on factors influencing operation performance of semiconductor manufacturing industry in Taiwan

碩士論文[[abstract]]本文利用1995年1月至2002年6月，以月資料的型態，探討當前台灣半導體製造業者處於全球競爭環境下影響其經營績效的因素。在研究方法上，本研究乃以整體的半導體製造公司為研究對象，提出研究假說並進行驗證。以多元迴歸分析及最小平方法探討影響經營績效的因素是哪些，及這些因素間長期間的關係以了解這些因素影響程度之大小，本研究並且提出對政府決策及業者日後投資策略上之建議。 本研究結果歸納成如下四點： 一、台灣半導體製造業的績效表現受到美國費城半導體指數之景氣影響 至深，此顯示半導體產業景氣為該產業經營績效的關鍵成功要素之一且為半導體製造商營運績效的領先指標。 二、當期台幣兌美元的匯率起伏對於半導體製造產業的整體營運沒有顯著性的正面影響，但落後一期(即前一個月)的匯率在半導體整體產業出口值約有一個月的時間落差負面影響效果存在。 三、迴歸分析結果顯示出廠商的外銷訂單與經營績效呈現正面的顯著關係，國際整合元件製造廠大幅釋放訂單及投資效應顯現的帶動，也是帶動我國半導體製造業成長的動力之一。 四、政府的產業政策對於產業績效也有明顯的關聯，表示政府對半導體產業的政策介入所產生的效果，不論是優惠補助或政府技術移轉，對整體產業營運績效有正面影響存在。[[abstract]]This article investigates factors influencing the operation performance of Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturing industry based on monthly data between January 1995 and June 2002. With respect to research methodology, we focus on the whole semiconductor manufacturing industry, propose hypotheses and test them. At first, approaches of Multi-regression and OLS are used to examine what factors that do exactly influence company’s operation efficiency, followed by approaches of time series and econometrics to investigate long-term relationship among those factors to make it clear about the degree that those factors affect. We also proposed suggestions to the government in terms of decision-making in semiconductor affairs, as well as to semiconductor manufacturers as references in making investment decisions.The research results are concluded as follows：Firstly, the operation performance of Taiwanese semiconductor industry is deeply affected by the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which indicates that the business cycle of semiconductor industry plays a critical role in the success of its operation performance, and is a predictive indicator for the operation performance of semiconductor manufacturers. Secondly, according to the results of regression analysis, current exchange rate exchange is not negative to semiconductor industry, but have a laggard negative effect. Thirdly, the quantity of foreign orders received is significantly relative to a manufacturer’s operation performance and the significant release of orders from international integrated device manufacturer (IDM) also contributes to the growth of semiconductor industry in Taiwan. Fourthly, the industry policy of the government also plays an important role to the industry performance. That is to say, the government intervention to the semiconductor, no matter subsidiary or even technological transfer, has a positive effect to the operation performance of the global industry