The Diffusion Pattern and Adoption Timing of Process across Countries: A Study on ISO 9000 Series Certifications

碩士論文[[abstract]]在創新產品擴散，可將其研究觀點分為兩大類：一是總體觀點、另一則是個體觀點。總體觀點主要是以數學方程式建構產品擴散型態，發展創新產品之生命週期曲線來探討採用者和未採用者之間的流動。個體觀點主是焦點是集中在探討何種因素會造成採用時機的不同。 有關擴散研究中，大部份都以耐久財為研究對象，鮮少有研究探討制度的擴散，因此本研究以ISO 9000驗證制度作為研究對象。在總體觀點方面，以Bass擴散模型探討全球各國ISO 9000驗證之擴散情形，以了解Bass擴散模型是否亦適用於新制度之擴散。就個體觀點方面，本研究以體制理論和擴散理論建立研究假設，藉由存活分析，利用1987年到1999年間66個國家之相關資料，探討顯著影響各國採用ISO 9000驗證時機的決定因素。 研究結果發現：就總體觀點研究而言，Bass擴散模型因為自由度不足，會造成配適結果不理想，但觀察個數若在8以上，則有合理的參數估計結果產生。 就個體觀點研究而言，本研究以log-logistic分配做為實證模型，(1)實證結果發現工業化程度、市場需求、平均每人GDP、政治體制、訊息接收、政府介入程度以及科學與技術期刊文章數為影響各國採用ISO 9000系列驗證的決定因素；(2)各國採用率為遞增函數；(3)估計結果具有穩健性，並且模型配適能力亦佳。 最後，本研究認為口碑效果明顯的話，則應採用滲透訂價策略。在市場導入方面，ISO所採用的策略為waterfall策略，且此策略亦適合於其他產品。ISO 9000驗證為一套全球共同遵循的品質管理標準，廠商應儘早採用以避免市場的流失。政府作為一國最高決策單位，應獎勵廠商採用ISO 9000驗證，給予採用廠商補助。[[abstract]]In the diffusion of innovations, two perspectives characterize most of the work in that research tradition─the aggregate perspective and the individual-level perspective.The main purpose in the aggregate perspective is to structure the diffusion pattern with mathematical equations of innovations. Applying the equations, the researchers develop the lifecycle curve of innovations to investigate the flow between adopters and non-adopters. In contrast, models in the individual-level perspective have focused on the impact of covariates on the timing of adoption. Previous research of diffusion has documented on durable goods, so less research focused on process level. In the aggregate perspective, we attempt to investigate the diffusion of ISO 9000 certifications across countries by applying Bass diffusion model. With the results, we further explore that if model is suitable to the other process or not. Based on institutional theory and diffusion theory, we establish research hypotheses in the individual-level perspective. And we apply survival analysis on ISO 9000 certifications in 66 countries between 1987 and 1999 to investigate what significant determinants affect adoption timing across countries. The major results are as follows: in the aggregate perspective research, when applying Bass diffusion model on the ISO 9000 certifications, the results of model fitness are quite risky and misleading. And the main reason is the lack for the degrees of freedom. But if the diffusion models have 8 or more observations, we can generate reasonable parameter estimates. In the individual-level perspective research, we propose to test a log-logistic function because it allows for non-monotonic baseline hazards. The empirical results find: first, the level of industrialization, market need, GDP per capita, polity, information access, the level of government''s intervention, and the numbers of scientific and technical journal articles are the significant determinants affected adoption timing across countries. Second, the adoption rate is inverted U-shape. Third, estimates are very robust, and model performance fit well. Finally, these results have important implications for international entry and pricing of new products. It is demonstrated that if the word-of-mouth effects exist, a penetration pricing strategy is optimal for ISO. And ISO took a waterfall strategy for introducing ISO 9000 certification in international markets. And the strategy is also suitable for other new products. Because ISO 9000 certification is the international quality standards which obeyed worldwide, firms should adopt it as soon as possible for fear of the loss of market share. Furthermore, governments, as the most powerful decision-marking units, should encourage and subsidize the firms to adopt the ISO 9000 certifications