The study of election recount in Taiwan

碩士論文[[abstract]]台灣2004年總統大選與2006年高雄市長選舉開票後，過程與結果均引起台灣社會廣大的爭議，大家關心的是重新驗票是否真能扭轉選舉結果，又其翻盤的機率為何？若翻盤機率微乎其微，而輕易啟動行政驗票，徒增政局動盪，社會不安。故在無任何選務人員作票的證據下，就透過法律途徑要求重新驗票，只是勞民傷財，浪費了龐大的社會成本而已。 本文利用所提出的模型，假設重新計票將翻盤之機率，估計出候選人的得票數差距；並且利用2004年總統大選與2006年高雄市長選舉的資料，加以分析探討。文中理論以Harris（1988）所提出的數學模型為基礎，假設所有計算選票的錯誤發生來自於人為的無心疏失，以及重新計票將能修正所有的誤差。並且適度推廣其理論，使之更能符合台灣的選舉環境，推導出台灣重新計票的規則。[[abstract]]After the president election of Taiwan in 2004 and the election of Kaohsiung mayor in 2006, the process and the result of it brought about the extensive issues in Taiwan that everyone concern weather the re-counting of votes could change the results of election and what percentage of that might be. If the percentage is not high, it just only causes the turbulence of the society and political situation. Therefore, it would waste a lot of money and manpower through the re-counting votes by laws without any proof of cheating the election. Based of the mode of this research, assume the percentage of re-counting votes which would change the election results, and evaluate the difference in votes among the candidates. Besides, analyze the results of presidential election in 2004 and the kaohsiung mayor in 2006 carefully. According the thesis of Harris (1998) which the mathematic model he submitted, suppose that the mistake of counting-votes is caused by people’s negligence and election recount could correct all the inaccuracy. Through the appropriate popularizing of this thesis, it could be much fitter for the Taiwan’s elective environment and promote the regulation of election recount in Taiwan