The Construction and Destruction of Network Externality –New Product Diffusion of TV Game Consoles

碩士論文[[abstract]]擴散模型是新產品開發、行銷管理與行銷科學研究中重要的研究工具。雖然理論上將網路外部性的效果分為直接和間接，但是文獻上的擴散模型都是強調產品採用人數的數量，在研究設計時均忽略了和主產品有互補關係的間接網路外部性效果。因此，本文是第一個實證遊戲主機、遊戲軟體兩者間的產品擴散關係。傳統的擴散理論傾向於大者恆大的局面，本研究則進一步去分析廠商如何取捨互補產品的策略來超越領先者。本研究首先對87位使用者和潛在使用者進行訪問，透過訪問稿的內容分析，整理出四項主要變數後，再發放針對20歲以下、21-30歲、31-40歲、41歲以上等四個族群的96位受訪者進行聯合分析。研究結果發現不論是使用者或潛在使用者，遊戲軟體口碑(間接效果)的效用值皆高於遊戲主機的品牌和遊戲主機的價格(直接效果)。進一步以擴散模型來分析2001-2006的第五代產品和1972-2006間的六代產品，研究結果提出了幾項重要的管理意涵。間接網路外部性策略確實提高了傳統擴散模型的預測能力，廠商主動採取積極的遊戲軟體研發策略是超越競爭者的主要原因，這項研究結果發現在34年期間的六個世代，遊戲軟體的口碑皆扮演關鍵的角色。回顧遊戲主機的發展歷史，此項研究結果可以用來解釋，為何致力於技術創新的產品，如SEGA在上市後的銷售為何不如預期。各主機廠商的平均遊戲生命週期不同，也影響了新產品的擴散速度，以Sony、Nintendo和Microsoft的第五代產品來比較，實證結果發現PS2的軟體生命週期為12個月，NGC和XBOX為6個月，同時Sony的軟體評價也高於後兩者。研究結果可以用來解釋PS2如何不受XBOX低價策略的威脅，同時創造出歷史上生命週期最長的產品。本研究利用多種研究方法，實證了遊戲主機、遊戲軟體兩者間的產品擴散關係，可以補充文獻上的缺口，也可以做為廠商分配研發資源和制訂行銷策略之參考。[[abstract]]Diffusion model is important research tool of the new product development, marketing management and marketing science. Though network effect divides into directly and indirectly, but the diffusion models all emphasize the quantity that the products adopt the number of people on literature. Some research have neglected it with the indirectly network effect of main product. Thus, this study is first empirical analysis of TV game and game software. Traditional diffusion theory inclines under the trend of bigger and bigger. This research is interviewed the 87 users and potential users at first, through analyzing the visiting draft, after putting four main parameters in order out, 96 interviewees that distributed over four groups among under 20 years old, 21-30 years old , 31-40 years old and age of 41 years old used conjoint analysis. We find the utility of word of mouth of game software (indirect effect) is all higher than brand of the game console and price (direct effect) of the user and potential user. To analyze the fifth generation products of 2001-2006 and six generations products of 1972-2006 by diffusion models, the result of study has put forward several items of important management meaning. The indirect network outside strategy have really increased the prediction ability that the tradition diffusion model, it is the main reason that surmount the competitor that the manufacturer adopts the R&D of game software, this result was found for six generations during 34 years, the word of mouth of the game software played key role. Reviewing the developing history of the TV game, this result can be used for explaining, why factory devoted to the products of technological innovation, such as why SEGA sale after going on the market is not expectancy. The average life cycle of game software are different, influence the rate of diffusion of the new products, such as comparing with the fifth generation of products of Sony, Nintendo and Microsoft, then the results of empirical analysis find the software life cycle of PS2 is twelve months, NGC and XBOX are six months, and find word of month of game software of Sony are higher than XBOX and NGC. The result can be used for explaining how PS2 does not receive the threat of XBOX low price strategy, and create the longest products of life cycle. This research utilizes many kinds of research approaches, and analyzes diffusion relation of the game consoles and game software. Therefore, this research can make marketing strategy for the game factory