The Effects of Forward Contracting on Spot Market in Paddy Rice Industry in Taiwan

碩士論文[[abstract]]我國自民國91年加入世界貿易組織（WTO），國內各產業皆面臨來自於國際貿易自由化之挑戰，其中對農業的影響甚鉅。我國先前許多保護措施如限制進口、高關稅、保價收購等具扭曲貿易效果之行為，皆須取消或採取一定程度的削減。因此，在面對國際市場開放的壓力下，我國稻米產業競爭力尤顯弱勢。政府為因應加入WTO 後所帶來之衝擊，採取許多相關具體措施，如輔導輪作休耕、保證價格收購，及建立良質米產銷專業區等。由於保證價格收購屬 WTO中需削減的境內支持部分，而休耕與轉作補貼亦容易扭曲市場機制及增加政府財政負擔，故在兼顧WTO要求與政府可確實執行之前提下，本研究針對產銷專區的契約耕作行為作一研究分析。 本研究建立一稻作契約行為模型，並藉由模擬分析得知稻米契作對現貨市場價格及其波動性之影響。結果顯示：現貨市場價格水準與現貨價格波動程度隨著契約市場交易量增加而遞減。再者，參數敏感度分析的結果顯示：稻農風險趨避程度與現貨價格水準呈現負相關，即其風險趨避程度愈高現貨價格水準愈低，但現貨價格波動幅度則加劇；另糧商在現貨市場的獨占力愈高時，現貨價格水準及其波動性都將減少。 本研究之政策建議為，當政府推行稻米產銷專業區政策時，契約交易比例增加，對於現貨市場交易之農民可能面對較低的現貨價格及較高的價格波動。如此，現貨市場稻農之福利將降低。由於現貨交易仍為一不可或缺的交易型態，政府除推廣契約市場交易外，更需重視稻農在現貨市場的收益能力；另如糧商的現貨市場力愈高，則現貨市場價格下降趨勢愈明顯，故政府應建立一健全之產銷體系，避免因糧商之獨占行為而損害農民之生計。[[abstract]]This research contributes to the understanding of the role of forward contracting, market structural features, and product characteristics as determinants spot price levels and volatility. In the theoretical model setting, we analyze the optimizing behavior of agents who produce and purchase commodities by using contract, and derived the individual supply and demand functions under price uncertainty and risk aversion. Stochastic simulation is further used to generate price series from which inferences are drawn concerning price levels and volatility associated with each scenario. Past studies have been empirical and found mixed evidence that the spot price is either inversely or not related to the incidence of contract use. Given the mixed empirical evidence, we re-examine the implications of contracting on cash (or spot) market price level and price volatility in this research based on Taiwan paddy rice market. Our results is that contracting can lead to reduced farmer prices received in spot market, not only due to the residual nature of spot markets that operate in conjunction with forward contracting, but also due to the adjusted spot demand by retailers. We find that as contracting increases, spot price levels decrease and spot price volatility increases