Explaining the Arab Uprisings of 2011 : the origins and outcomes of contagion

M.A. (Politics)The study undertakes to establish whether the Arab uprisings of 2011 can be understood as the product of a process of contagion or diffusion, and to analyse how protests spread between Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. A framework of diffusion is developed from the literature in light of which the protests in these countries are analysed. Furthermore, the aim is to determine whether the outcomes of the uprisings have resulted in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya being any more democratic than they were before. For this purpose, political conditions in these countries are analysed against a framework of democratic transition. The study finds that the protests in late 2010 and 2011 did in fact originate in Tunisia and spread to Egypt and then Libya through a process of diffusion, by which adopters in Egypt and Libya emulated the behaviour of protesters in Tunisia who had demonstrated a successful innovation. Evidence for this is found in the analysis of the elements and mechanisms of the diffusion process, specifically in the master frames of protesters, particular features of protests common to all three countries, and similarities and channels of communication between transmitters and adopters. Only in Tunisia is the outcome of the uprising found to have produced democratic results. The country has met most of the procedural requirements of democracy in addition to developing many key democratic values in the transition process. In Egypt, the state has reverted back to the control of the old regime’s security apparatus, and Egyptians enjoy even less protection of human and civil rights than before. The failure of Libya’s transitional authorities to harness the rogue militias that emerged after the civil war has resulted in the virtual absence of the rule of law and the almost complete delegitimisation of the country’s young democratic institutions. With the emergence of two rival parliaments Libya risks further descent into chaos