Policy implications of household grain marketing and storage decisions in Zimbabwe

A position paper on agricultural development policy aimed at uplifting the rural farmer in Zimbabwe.The emergence of the communal area farmer as an important provider of marketed surplus (Stanning, 1985; Rohrbach, 1986) has had a broad impact on the grain-marketing system at the national, regional, and household level. First, the shift in supply towards communal producers has made it more difficult for the Grain Marketing Board (GMB) to forecast intake. For example, in 1984-85, maize was imported at higher landed cost than the local selling price, because of a forecast shortfall. As it turned out, stocks would have been sufficient as intake was around 50% greater than predicted. While output in both commercial and communal areas exceeded early projection; communal projection was particularly low, relative to actual supply. National forecasts have improved in the last two seasons, but better informed estimates of on-farm retentions, including local sales, are crucial in developing a good forecasting model.The research supporting the preparation of the proceedings papers was financed by the U.S. Agency for International Development, Bureau of Science and Technology