Applying seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural and natural ecosystems - A synthesis

The chapters contributed to this book express a wealth of knowledge and experience on generating and applying seasonal climate forecasts in agricultural and natural ecosystems, In the introductory section the impact of climate variability and the potential for using seasonal forecasts in managing climate risks were outlined. It was made clear that climate forecasts must be phrased as probabilistic statements, The concept of a general integrated systems approach to applying forecasts across a range of scale from farm to region and nation was introduced. This concept focussed on deriving the targeted information needs of decision-makers in a manner that captured the value of the climate forecast. It was suggested that, as the climate forecast only acquired value when decisions were modified in response to it, then a focus on decision-making in the target systems was an appropriate basis to structure the contributions to this book. While systems across the range of scale involved diverse decision-makers and issues ranging from resource management to policy, the general approach was relevant in all cases. The aim of this paper is to synthesise key issues fi-om those contributions and to discuss them in a way that might guide future activities